Cover 7| Monday
A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Monday, Mike Sando breaks down the six most impactful takeaways from the week.
Just as no one predicted, the NFL season neared its midpoint Sunday with the Minnesota Vikings presenting a game ball to Joshua Dobbs in a locker room packed with people Dobbs barely knew.
The NFL, scripted? You can’t script what is beyond comprehension, but with 135 of 272 regular-season games in the books pending the Monday night matchup, the Super Bowl teams from last season, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, do sit atop their respective conferences. It’s a great time to size up the league.
The Pick Six column for Week 9 sorts through my midseason choices for Coach of the Year, MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and more. There’s an appreciation for Dobbs and his injured predecessor, Kirk Cousins, plus quick hits on the Giants, Raiders, Seahawks, Eagles and Cowboys. The full menu:
- Coach of Year: McDaniel, Campbell, Harbaugh?
- MVP race: Quarterback streak in jeopardy
- Defensive Player of the Year and more
- Seven biggest surprises of the season
- Tanking? Dobbs, Vikings deliver memories
- Two-minute drill: Giants and the top pick
Now, on to the awards. Please hold your applause til the end.
1. Mike McDaniel is my Coach of the (Half) Year, edging out Dan Campbell and John Harbaugh.
My choice:
Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins: McDaniel is sure to celebrate his selection here the way he celebrated his team setting an NFL record for yards through five games.
“Mission accomplished,” McDaniel joked then. “We had the whole time, the whole off-season, that was our goal, was output after five games.”
The Dolphins are 0-3 against the only contenders they’ve faced, falling 48-20 to Buffalo, 31-17 to Philadelphia and 21-14 to Kansas City on Sunday. That doesn’t disqualify McDaniel here because he’s done such a great job leveraging his personnel to get record-setting production from an accurate but limited quarterback.
“The offensive numbers and production speak for themselves,” a defensive coach from another team said. “He is calling the offense, he is designing the offense, he’s creating the motions we haven’t seen in the NFL before. They look Canadian to us.”
The Dolphins have great speed at wide receiver, but without McDaniel scheming open those players with creative motions, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa would have a harder time delivering the ball on time. Tagovailoa’s limitations become obvious when opponents disrupt that timing. That is why coaches and execs voted Tagovailoa into Tier 3 before the season.
“Mike does an outstanding job in terms of schematics and looks and optics of things,” another defensive coach said. “It allows Tua to play fast, and Tyreek has space to run his routes. People can’t just roll to him all the time. He doesn’t just have to be a vertical guy or catch shallows and catch-and-runs. He can do it all. The offense showcases all that for him.
McDaniel’s humility serves him well. Hiring senior assistants can feel threatening for younger coaches, but not McDaniel. He embraced adding defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who was calling defensive plays before McDaniel was born.
“To me, McDaniel is the smartest man in the room, but won’t let you think he thinks it,” an exec said.
Close behind:
Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions: The Lions are playing with expectations for the first time and are living up to them. The team and city have embraced Campbell’s leadership, reviving a dormant franchise. The Lions are minus-1,000 favorites to win the NFC North and return to the playoffs, a major accomplishment for the franchise.
GO DEEPER
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John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens: There were times last offseason when it seemed possible Harbaugh had reached his shelf life in Baltimore, which can happen to even the best coaches after so many years in one place. His quarterback was estranged, he was installing a new offense and his team hadn’t advanced past the divisional round since the 2012 season.
The potential for implosion was there. Instead, the Ravens are 7-2 after hammering Seattle 37-3 in Week 9. They rank eighth in offensive EPA per play while establishing a new identity with increased use of three wide receivers and more measured usage of Lamar Jackson as a runner. The defense ranks second in EPA per play. It has allowed nine touchdowns through nine games, matching the historic 2000 Ravens defense.
“I think it’s interesting that two of the three coaches here (Harbaugh and Campbell) do not call plays,” a veteran coach noted. “So much goes into the game plan, in-game decisions and everything else that you really have to be a top coach to do it all effectively.”
2. Quarterbacks have won MVP honors for 10 years running. The streak could end this season.
This season has been far from a showcase for the quarterback-driven passing game.
Tagovailoa and the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy rank 1-2 in EPA per pass play. It might be a little harsh to call them point guards for highly schemed offenses, but there’s some truth to the description. Patrick Mahomes might be the NFL’s best player, but his Chiefs are winning largely with defense. The same goes for the Ravens.
My choice:
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins: Hill’s 1,076 yards rank sixth in NFL history through the first nine games of a season. Though no receiver poses a greater vertical threat, Hill also excels turning shorter routes into big gains. His willingness to consistently execute presnap motions at maximum speed elevates his offense.
Below we see how his nine-game yardage total ranks.
- Don Hutson [1942] 1,166
- Elroy Hirsch [1951] 1,162
- Raymond Berry (1960) 1,147
- Tyreek Hill (2022) 1,104
- Calvin Johnson (2013) 1,083
- Tyreek Hill (2023) 1,076
- Isaac Bruce (1995) 1,073
- Jim Benton (1945) 1,067
- Justin Jefferson (2022) 1,060
- Julio Jones (2018) 1,040
Close behind:
- A.J. Brown, Eagles: Brown’s 1,005 yards through nine games rank 20th in league history, falling a single yard behind the career-best pace for Jerry Rice, set in 1990. His record streak of six consecutive games with at least 127 yards ended with a seven-catch, 66-yard game against the Cowboys in Week 9.
- Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns: No defensive player has won MVP honors from the Associated Press or Pro Football Writers of America since Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Could this be the year with defenses having their way? Garrett ranks second in sacks (9.5), fifth in pressure rate (minimum 100 pass-rush snaps) and is tied for first in forced fumbles (four).
3. Defensive Player of the Year, Rookies of the Year and the runaway winner for Comeback Player of the Year.
Defensive Player of the Year: Garrett:
Garrett’s next-level work is without rival. He leap-frogged an Indianapolis lineman cleanly to block a field-goal try in a tie game. He also induced Tennessee into a delay penalty by repeatedly running across the formation after realizing the Titans were shadowing his movements.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans:
His five-touchdown performance during a 39-37 victory against Tampa Bay pushed him past Los Angeles Rams receiver Puka Nacua at the midpoint. Nacua has been the more consistent producer; he trails only Hill and Brown in receiving yards. Stroud has the Texans at 4-4 and filled with hope.
When Stroud and the Texans took possession for the final time Sunday, they trailed Tampa Bay