Preseason rankings in men’s college basketball are becoming increasingly difficult to predict due to player movement in the transfer portal era. However, this unpredictability makes the sport even more fun. While football tends to have a small group of teams competing for the national title each year, basketball provides surprises like Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, and Miami making it to the Final Four.
It’s important to note that teams can still surprise us despite not being ranked in the preseason polls or KenPom’s Top 25. Last year, for example, Big Ten champion Purdue, Big East champ Marquette, and Xavier, which reached the Sweet 16, weren’t ranked in the preseason polls. Even Florida Atlantic didn’t receive a single vote.
Now, let’s take a look at some of the teams that our panel of 12 voters believes will exceed expectations this season. The first criteria for a “surprise” team is that they can’t be ranked in either major poll or in KenPom’s preseason Top 25. Here are the teams our voters have chosen:
1. TCU: The Horned Frogs bring back a significant amount of scoring power in the Big 12 and have added a strong transfer portal class. Players like Jameer Nelson Jr., Ernest Udeh Jr., Avery Anderson III, Trevian Tennyson, and Essam Mostafa bring depth and talent to the team. TCU possesses one of the best backcourts in the conference and the country, along with good depth, which will help them win close conference games.
2. New Mexico: The Lobos have an elite backcourt, great 3-point shooting, and loads of experience. Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House return and combined to average 36 points per game last season. The team has also added veteran transfers Nelly Junior Joseph, Jemarl Baker, and Mustapha Amzil, along with first-team All-Southland grad transfer Isaac Mushila. The addition of Junior Joseph fills a crucial need for the team in terms of replacing a strong center from last season. The Lobos have no problem scoring but need to improve their defensive efficiency to become a legitimate NCAA Tournament threat.
3. St. John’s: With the arrival of head coach Rick Pitino, St. John’s has a chance to make waves in the Big East. Pitino has a proven track record and has completely overhauled the roster. The addition of players like Jordan Dingle, Nahiem Alleyne, Daniss Jenkins, Chris Ledlum, and Simeon Wilcher alongside center Joel Soriano provides a talented and deep lineup. While it remains to be seen how all the pieces fit together, Pitino’s coaching expertise and the team’s talent make them a potential contender in a stacked conference.
4. Virginia: The ACC is in a state of flux, and Virginia has a team that suits Tony Bennett’s style of play. The Cavaliers finished 15-5 in the league last year and have added defensive talents like Reece Beekman, Jordan Minor, and Ryan Dunn. If the Cavaliers can return to their trademark suffocating defense, they have the potential to surprise opponents and win more games.
5. Iowa State: Under the leadership of T.J. Otzelberger, Iowa State has seen rapid improvement, making it to the Sweet 16 in his first season and qualifying for the NCAA Tournament last year. The team has rebuilt its roster and gained confidence. While they may not be ranked in the preseason polls, the Cyclones have shown promise and have the potential to continue their success.
In conclusion, preseason rankings may be more challenging than ever due to player movement, but that’s what makes men’s college basketball exciting. There will always be teams that surprise us despite months of predictions, and these teams chosen by our voters are poised to exceed expectations this season.