Hamas’s attack on Saturday caught Israeli intelligence officials off guard, particularly due to the tactics used by the militants to enter and exit Israel, according to an anonymous senior defense official familiar with the collected information on the group.
The successful broad attack highlighted significant failures on the part of the Israeli defense establishment and may lead to a reconsideration of Israel’s strategic approach to Hamas and the Gaza Strip, the official noted.
This could have profound implications for the entire Middle East.
Israel has historically contained Hamas and Gaza through a strategy that relied on an intelligence network to anticipate Hamas’s moves and the Israeli army’s ability to repel a ground invasion. However, both these safeguards failed during Saturday’s attack.
Israel, known for its strong intelligence capabilities in the region, had previously warned of a potential military conflict due to Israel’s perceived division over a judicial overhaul pursued by the ultra-right governing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
While Israeli intelligence detected indications of a major operation planned by Hamas, they did not have a clear picture of the extent of the attack, according to one of the officials.
Israel failed to detect the elaborate preparations required for the 250 Hamas militants involved in the assault on military bases, cities, and kibbutzes.
American officials also acknowledged that Israel and the United States were aware of the possibility of a Hamas attack but did not have specific tactical warnings for the Saturday strikes.
The complexity and preparation required for the attack by Hamas left many wondering why Israel and the United States were caught off guard.
After withdrawing from the Gaza Strip in 2005, Hamas evolved from a militant organization to the governing authority. While Israel has responded to previous attacks from Gaza with significant firepower, limited ground maneuvers have been pursued as part of the strategy to contain the conflict.
Israel’s successive prime ministers have deemed the cost of invading and occupying the Gaza Strip to crush Hamas rule too high, considering the loss of lives and the challenges of governing millions of residents.
However, it is known that both Hamas and Palestinian Jihad have received support from Iran, including funding, training, weapons, and advanced combat and intelligence equipment.
The surprise attack on Israel coincided with the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, which began with a surprise attack by Syrian and Egyptian forces. The defense official suggested that Hamas deliberately chose this date to exploit national trauma, and the intelligence failure and heavy losses were reminiscent of the 1973 war.
Despite significant resources invested in intelligence gathering, this was not the first time that Hamas managed to surprise Israeli intelligence. In 2006, an attack by a Hamas squad resulted in the death of soldiers and the abduction of Gilad Shalit, and Israeli intelligence was initially unaware of the attack and the whereabouts of Shalit.
Videos released by Hamas during the operation portrayed the Israeli defense establishment as weak, caught off guard, and humiliated.
Israel is now expected to respond forcefully, potentially with a ground invasion of Gaza, as it believes there are no other options remaining, according to a senior defense official.
The involvement of Hezbollah, the Lebanese military group, will play a crucial role in determining how the crisis unfolds. If Hezbollah becomes directly engaged, the fighting is likely to escalate significantly in the region.
Julian Barnes in Washington contributed.