As the Israeli troops continue their mission to destroy Hamas in Gaza, the attention of the world is also focused on the northern border of Israel, where their forces have been engaged in fierce clashes with Hezbollah, a more powerful opponent. Since its ally Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, Hezbollah has found itself in a difficult position. It has always identified itself as a resistance movement dedicated to protecting Lebanon and supporting the Palestinians, but it is now torn between maintaining its credibility and avoiding a full-scale war.
Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon is significant, as it is the most powerful political and military force in the country. Even the Lebanese government cannot control its decisions, which often affect the entire nation. Additionally, Hezbollah is part of a network of Iran-backed militias in the Middle East, including Hamas. Therefore, its calculations extend beyond Lebanon’s borders.
Despite having more advanced weapons and experienced militants than in its last major war with Israel in 2006, Hezbollah has so far only engaged in limited skirmishes with Israeli troops. While it could expand its attacks on Israel’s north and put pressure on the country while its focus is on Gaza, Hezbollah has shown restraint due to domestic and regional considerations.
In Lebanon, there is little desire for war, given the country’s ongoing economic crisis. Regionally, Hezbollah’s involvement in a second front could prompt the United States to support Israel. American officials have privately urged Israel not to launch a major strike on Hezbollah that could escalate the situation.
However, if the situation in Gaza worsens or Israel escalates its attacks in Lebanon, Hezbollah may be compelled to respond. Its capabilities are not completely known, but it has the ability to cause damage within Israel. With its extensive arsenal, including rockets and precision guided missiles, Hezbollah can choose to target sensitive areas both inside and outside of Israel.
Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has been relatively quiet since the recent attacks by Hamas. He is scheduled to address his followers soon, leaving the region uncertain about Hezbollah’s next move. While the militant group has indicated that it will enter the war if Hamas is on the verge of destruction, Israel’s goal is to destroy Hamas.
The clashes between Hezbollah and Israel over the past few weeks have been the most intense since 2006, leading to the displacement of tens of thousands of people. Hezbollah appears to be restraining its attacks to avoid triggering a broader war and has expressed confidence in Hamas’ current position, suggesting that it does not require Hezbollah’s assistance.
Iran has established a network of loyal militias in the Middle East, with many receiving training from Hezbollah. However, Hezbollah is Iran’s most valuable asset when it comes to countering Israel and is likely being saved for a significant event. The risks of getting involved in a full-scale conflict with Israel are high, considering the presence of U.S. aircraft carriers in the region.
While Hezbollah is increasingly unpopular in Lebanon, it still has the ability to launch a war with Israel if it chooses to do so. The group may be counting on Israel’s actions in Gaza and the civilian casualties to stir anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment across the Middle East, thus rejuvenating support for armed action against Israel.